You must show your work and logic in the EXCEL file ( no screenshots) PROVIDE THE EXCEL LINK BELOW WHEN DONE Fisher-Pric

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You must show your work and logic in the EXCEL file ( noscreenshots) PROVIDE THE EXCEL LINK BELOW WHEN DONE
Fisher-Price Toys Company sells a variety of new and innovativechildren's toys. Management Learned that the preholiday season isthe best time to introduce a new toy, because many families usethis time to look for new ideas for December holiday gifts. WhenFisher-Price discovers a new toy with good market potential, itchooses on October market entry date. In order to get toys in itsstores by October, Fisher-Price places one-time orders with itsmanufacturers in June or July of each year. Demand for children'stoys can be highly volatile. If a new toy catches on, a sense ofshortage in the marketplace often increases the demand to highlevels and large profits can be realized. However, new toys canalso flop, leaving Fisher-Price stuck with high levels of inventorythat must be sold at reduced process. The most important questionthat company faces is deciding how many units of a new toy shouldbe purchased to meet anticipated sales demand. If too few arepurchased, sales will be lost; if too many are purchased, profitswill be reduced because of low prices realized in clearance sales.For the coming season, Fisher-Price plans to introduce a newproduct called Weather Teddy. This variation of a talking teddybear is made by a company in Taiwan. When a child pressed Teddy'shand, the bear begins to talk. A built-in barometer selects one offive responses that predict the conditions. The responses rangefrom "It looks to be a very nice day! Have Fun" to "I think it mayrain today. Don't forget your umbrella." Tests with the productshow that, even though it is not a perfect weather predictor, itspredictions are surprisingly good. Several of Fisher-Price'smanagers claimed Teddy gave predictions of the weather that were asgood as many local television weather forecasters. As with otherproducts, Fisher-Price faces the decision of how many Weather Teddyunits to order for the coming holiday season. Members of themanagement team suggested order quantities of 15,000, 18,000,24,000, or 28,000 units. The wide range of order quantitiessuggested indicates considerable disagreement concerning the marketpotential. The product management team asks you for an analysis ofthe stock-out probabilities for various order quantities, anestimate of the profit potential, and to help make an orderquantity recommendation. Fisher-Price expects to sell Weather Teddyfor $24 based on a cost of $16 per unit. If inventory remains afterthe holiday season, Fisher-Price will sell all surplus inventoryfor $5 per unit. After reviewing the sales history of similarproducts, Fisher-Price's senior sales forecaster predicted anexpected demand of 20,000 units with a .95 probability that demandwould be between 10,000 units and 30,000 units. Managerial ReportPrepare a managerial report that addresses the following issues andrecommends an order quantity for the Weather Teddy product:
1. Use the sales forecaster's prediction to describe a normalprobability distribution that can be used to approximate the demanddistribution. Sketch the distribution and show its mean andstandard deviation.
2. Compute the probability of a stock-out for the orderquantities suggested by members of the management team.
3. Compute the projected profit for the order quantitiessuggested by the management team under three scenarios: worst casein which sales = 10,000 units, most likely case in which sales =20,000 units, and best case in which sales = 30,000 units.
4. One of Fisher-Price's managers felt that the profit potentialwas so great that the order quantity should have a 70% chance ofmeeting demand and only a 30% chance of any stock-outs. Whatquantity would be ordered under this policy, and what is theprojected profit under the three sales scenarios?
5. Provide your own recommendation for an order quantity andnote the associated profit projections. Provide a rational for yourrecommendations.