To analyse the experiment the virologist calls in the help of an infectious disease epidemiologist. The epidemiologist a

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To Analyse The Experiment The Virologist Calls In The Help Of An Infectious Disease Epidemiologist The Epidemiologist A 1 (248.35 KiB) Viewed 27 times

To analyse the experiment the virologist calls in the help of an infectious disease epidemiologist. The epidemiologist asserts that the probability that an infection event (symbolically denoted by (S,I)-(S-1,/+1)) occurs in a small time interval Atis given by BS(I/N) At, while the probability that a recovery event (denoted by (S,/)-(S,/-1)) occurs in a small time interval Atis given by yl At. (b) Convince yourself that the probability that an infection event occurs before a recovery event is given by (RS)/(RS+N), where R-B/y is the so-called reproduction number. What is the probability that a recovery event occurs before an infection event? Notice that the probability that an infection event occurs before a recovery event does not depend on the number of infected individuals. Can you explain why? (c) What is the probability that none of the two susceptible contact animals will be infected? What is the probability that exactly one infection event will occur? What is the probability that both of the susceptible contact animals are ultimately infected?