Exercise 2 Part I This Exercise Is Extracted From A Research Paper Looking At A Model Used To Predict The Us Presidentia 1 (33.73 KiB) Viewed 35 times
Exercise 2 Part I This Exercise Is Extracted From A Research Paper Looking At A Model Used To Predict The Us Presidentia 2 (28.19 KiB) Viewed 35 times
Exercise 2 Part I This Exercise Is Extracted From A Research Paper Looking At A Model Used To Predict The Us Presidentia 3 (22.92 KiB) Viewed 35 times
Exercise 2 Part I This exercise is extracted from a research paper looking at a model used to predict the US presidential elections. The basic premise of the model is that the incumbent party's share of the two-party (Democratic and Republican) popular vote (incumbent means the party in power at the time of the election) is affected by a number of factors relating to the economy and variables relating to the politics, such as how long the incumbent party has been in power and whether the president is running for reelection. The data contain 26 observations for the election years from 1916 to 2016. Using all the data from 1916 to 2016, we estimate the regression model: Model 1: VOTE-B.+B.growthl+e where: VOTE- Democratic share of the presidential vote growth-growth rate GDP if the first three quarters of the election year 1-1 if democrat incumbent, 0 if republican incumbent growthl-growth*1
Table 2: sum vote growth Variable yote th vce reg vote growth Source Model 551.584957 Residual 583.129657 1134.71461 Total Obs growth! cons 26 26 e(V) growth! 55 Mean Std. dev. 49.48642 1.112462 df vote Coefficient Std. err. 1.2277 .2576694 48.12065 6.737105 3.825992 MS 1 551.584957 24 24.2970691 25 45.3885846 Covariance matrix of coefficients of regress model growth cons 06639353 cons 07386025 1.0166693 Min Pi|t| 4.76 0.000 1.0083 47.72 0.000 36.148 62.226 -11.463 11.682 Number of obs F(1, 24) Prob F R-squared Adj R-squared Root HSE Max -6958962 46.03962 26 22.70 0.0001 0.4861 0.4647 . 4.9292 . . . . [95% conf. interval] 1.759503 50.20168 Question 11 Refer to Model 1 and Table 2. Test (at a 5% significance level) the significance of the slope coefficient. (Please precise the necessary five steps to conduct the test: HO, H1, the statistics value, the critical value, conclusion; each step is worth 1 point) Use the editor to format your answer Questions Filter (25) 5 Points
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