- 3 Exercise 5 3 Metropolitan Hospital Has Estimated Its Average Monthly Bed Needs N As N 460 9xn 460 9x Where X Tim 1 (77.32 KiB) Viewed 18 times
3. Exercise 5.3 Metropolitan Hospital has estimated its average monthly bed needs, N, as: N=460+9XN=460+9X where X = time period (months); (January 2002 = 0) Assume that no new hospital additions are expected in the area in the foreseeable future. The following monthly seasonal adjustment factors have been estimated, using data from the past five years: Forecast Metropolitan's bed demand for January, April, July, November, and December 2007. Adjustment Factor (%) Forecast +5 Month January April July November -5 December -25 -15 Suppose the following actual and forecast values for June bed demands have been recorded. Year Forecast Actual 2007 1,045 2006 937 2005 829 2004 721 2003 613 2002 505 +4 1,076 974 870 764 656 545 What seasonal adjustment factor would you recommend be used in making future June forecasts? 5.5% -0.2% 2.7%