INDIVIDUAL ASSIGNMENT #1 : LESSON 2 (10%) Question 1 Data collected on the yearly registrations for a Six Sigma seminar

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INDIVIDUAL ASSIGNMENT #1 : LESSON 2 (10%)
Question 1
Data collected on the yearly registrations for a Six Sigma
seminar at the Quality College are shown in the following
table:
Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Registrations (000)
4
6
4
5
10
8
7
9
12
14
15
a) Develop a 3-year moving average to forecast registrations
from year 4 to year 12.
b) Estimate demand again for years 4 to 12 with a 3-year
weighted moving average in which registrations in the most recent
year are given a weight of 2, and registrations in the other 2
years are each given a weight of 1.
c) Graph the original data and the two forecasts. Which of the
two forecasting methods seems better?
Question 2
As you can see in the following table, demand for heart
transplant surgery at Washington General Hospital has increased
steadily in the past few years:
Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
Heart Transplan
45
50
52
56
58
?
The director of medical services predicted 6 years ago that
demand in year 1 would be 41 surgeries.
a) Use exponential smoothing, first with a smoothing constant of
.6 and then with one of .9, to develop forecasts for years 2
through 6.
b) Use a 3-year moving average to forecast demand in years 4, 5,
and 6.
Question 3
The following gives the number of pints of type B blood used at
Woodlawn Hospital in the past 6 weeks:
Weeks Of
Pints Used
August 31
360
Sept 7
389
Sept 14
410
Sept 21
381
Sept 28
368
October 5
374
a) Forecast the demand for the week of October 12 using a 3-week
moving average.
b) Use a 3-week weighted moving average, with weights of .1, .3,
and .6, using .6 for the most recent week. Forecast demand for the
week of October 12.
c) Compute the forecast for the week of October 12 using
exponential smoothing with a forecast for August 31 of 360 and a =
.2.