- 5 The Following Question Concern This Key Table From The Paper By Phillip Verwimp Entitled Machetes And Firearms The 1 (101.81 KiB) Viewed 28 times
- 5 The Following Question Concern This Key Table From The Paper By Phillip Verwimp Entitled Machetes And Firearms The 2 (102.98 KiB) Viewed 28 times
5. The following question concern this key table from the paper by Phillip Verwimp entitled "Machetes and Firearms: The Organization of Massacres in Rwanda". Tahle VI. Accounting for Type of Weapon Used Variable Madel Model 2 Inutividad Age ,0329 (9.56) --0004 (-9.52) -1958 (-1.66) -0072 (-3.88) Gender Gender age 0302 (8.31) -0003 (-7.571 056 (0.46) -0063 (-3.10) .7065 (6.70) 0522 17:42) --0005 (-5.15) 018 Off-farm Days after April Days after April 634 Gender"days after Gender" days after se (5.69) .1157 (17.29) -0014 (-12%) 060 (4.61) - 0017 -0007 Commune and musste dummies Massacre 2.191 Gisor 1.124 6078 (6.51) 3.53) Gishyata 1.1417*** 1408 (738) Kivumu (0.89) 1.5108 -9590 19.69) Mabanza (6.01) 3.152 2.3064 (2094) (14.98) Mwendo .5965 3.35) Rwamatamu 2.398 2.6472 (16.21) Constant (17.42) 4.551" -5.060. (-28.85) (-29.35) N 23.650 21.536 Bor weighted not weighted not dustered not dustered 0.11 0.20 Log likelihood -10,57796 8.930.64 *** significant at the 1% level. * -ignificant at the 5% levd. * significant at the 10% lavd. us in patentes a. According to model 1 what is the probability that a Rwandan victim with the following characteristic was killed with a firearm: 20 years old, male, On- farm, April 8, Rwamatamu commune? (5 marks)
b. How much does your answer to part a. change if we switch from On-farm to Off-farm? (5 marks) c. Is the change in the probability of being killed by a firearm associated with changing from On-farm to Off-farm always the same, regardless of the other characteristics of the victim? Explain very briefly why or why not. (5 marks) 6. A researcher takes a random sample of wars and studies debates within each country that preceded the decision to fight. She finds that in the majority of cases the decision makers, both civilian and military, were overoptimistic about the chances of victory. That is, they usually thought they would win and even when they allowed that they might not win they still thought they would do better than they actually did. The researcher concludes that wishful thinking (over optimism) causes wars. Explain very briefly why this is not a valid conclusion that can be drawn from this study. Note that the conclusion might actually be true but data collected are not enough to make a convincing case for this conclusion. (10 marks)