- 4 An Excess Death Calculation Always Requires A Counterfactual Baseline To Compare Against So For Example In Order T 1 (159.28 KiB) Viewed 37 times
4. An excess-death calculation always requires a counterfactual baseline to compare against. So, for example, in order to estimate excess deaths caused by Covid we must begin from baseline of how many people we think would have died if Covid had never happened. Here is a table of (made up) death rates in a war-torn country composed of two regions with equal populations and with all war violence happening only in region B. Period/Region Death Rate (deaths from all causes per 1,000 per year) Pre-war/Region A Pre-war/Region B During War/Region A During War/Region B 10 5 5 4 Provide an idea for a counterfactual baseline that can support each of the following two claims and very briefly explain your idea. a. The national excess death rate is 2 per 1,000 per year. (5 marks) b. The excess death rate in region B is 6 per 1,000 per year. (5 marks) Now consider the following table which merges the two regions but provides annual data on pre-war death rates. Period Death Rate (deaths from all causes per 1,000 per year) 3 years before the war 7 2 years before the war 6 1 year before the war 5 During the war 7 c. Provide an idea behind a counterfactual baseline that can support a claim that the national excess death rate is 3 per 1,000 per year. (5 marks)