- Problem 15 05 Algorithmic Consider The Following Time Series Data Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 20 13 16 12 17 14 A Choose 1 (58.46 KiB) Viewed 41 times
Problem 15-05 (Algorithmic) Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 20 13 16 12 17 14 a. Choose the correct time series plot. (1) Time Series Value 20- 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 (iii) 20 Time Series Value (ii) W Week(t) 3 4 5 6 (iv) 20- 18 16- 14- 12- 10- 8- 6- 4 2. 20- Time Series Value h n 2 3 4 5 Time Series Value 6 Week(t)
c. Use a = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Round your answers to two decimal places. Time Series Week Forecast Value 1 20 2 13 3 16 4 12 5 17 6 14 MSE: The forecast for week 7: d. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using a = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Three-week moving average ▾ Explain. The input in the box below will not be graded, but may be reviewed and considered by your instructor. a. Ment
13 16 4 12 5 17 6 14 MSE: The forecast for week 7: d. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using a = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Three-week moving average Explain. The input in the box below will not be graded, but may be reviewed and considered by your instructor. e. Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient a that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for a = 0.2. Find a value of a for the smallest MSE. Round your answer to three decimal places. α = 0.99 2 3