- 2 Your Zero G Proof Pen Manufacturing Company Is In Dire Straights And You Want To Know What The Probability Is That Y 1 (153.73 KiB) Viewed 39 times
2) Your zero-g-proof-pen manufacturing company is in dire straights, and you want to know what the probability is that you will have to declare bankruptcy. In order to stay afloat, you need the following three things to happen: Your factory needs to fill an order for 500 pens without making any defective pens (assume a binomial distribution with a 0.05% chance of error), you also need a space shuttle to be launched in the next month (consider space shuttle launch per month a Poisson random variable with rate 0.4, and you need exactly 1 launch), and you need your CEO to find at least 3 NASA secretaries who will take his phone calls (in the past this occurrence has been normally distributed with mean 2.6 and variance 1). Assuming that these three events are independent, what is the probability that your company will go under? 3) Write a Monte-Carlo simulation to test your analytical result in part 2). using poissrnd, binornd, and normrnd with the appropriate parameters. Vary the number of trials from 100 to 100000 (in steps of -10,000) and report the error in the computed probability.