1. After sleeping in a coma for a long time, Aurora awakens in a hospital bed. She is confused and does not know what da

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1 After Sleeping In A Coma For A Long Time Aurora Awakens In A Hospital Bed She Is Confused And Does Not Know What Da 1 (142.43 KiB) Viewed 39 times

1. After sleeping in a coma for a long time, Aurora awakens in a hospital bed. She is confused and does not know what day it is. Looking out her window, she notices a light rail station. She remembers that trains are scheduled to come once every 5 minutes on weekdays, once every 10 minutes on Saturdays, and once every 20 minutes on Sundays. Using a clock on the wall, she measures: • Between the first train and the second train is a waiting time of 7 minutes. • Between the second and third trains is a waiting time of 11 minutes. • Between the third and fourth trains is a waiting time of 6 minutes. • Between the fourth and fifth trains is a waiting time of 12 minutes. She reasons that these four observations 7,11,6, 12 ought to be independent samples from an Exponential distribution with mean 0, where 0 is either 5, 10, or 20 depending on the day of the week. Before taking the observations, she assigned prior probabilities of 5, , and for the current day being a weekday, Saturday, or Sunday. After taking the observations, what are her posterior probabilities? 71 72