Chapter 12: Simulation Question 6: (20 points) IMPORTANT: For this question, if you are not screenshots for values pages

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Chapter 12 Simulation Question 6 20 Points Important For This Question If You Are Not Screenshots For Values Pages 1 (64.57 KiB) Viewed 12 times

Chapter 12: Simulation Question 6: (20 points) IMPORTANT: For this question, if you are not screenshots for values pages and formula pages, you will be graded as zero points. Look at the Appendix B for Excel screenshots. In preparing for the upcoming holiday season, Fresh Toy Company (FTC) designed a new doll called The Dougie that teaches children how to dance. The fixed cost to produce the doll is $100,000. The variable cost, which includes material, labor, and shipping costs, is $34 per doll. During the holiday selling season, FTC will sell the dolls for $42 each. If FTC overproduces the dolls, the excess dolls will be sold in January through a distributor who has agreed to pay FTC $10 per doll. Demand for new toys during the holiday selling season is extremely uncertain. Forecasts are for expected sales of 60,000 dolls with a standard deviation of 15,000. The normal probability distribution is assumed to be a good description of the demand. FTC has tentatively decided to produce 60,000 units (the same as average demand), but it wants to conduct an analysis regarding this production quantity before finalizing the decision. a. Create a what-if spreadsheet model using a formula that relate the values of production quantity, demand, sales, revenue from sales, amount of surplus, revenue from sales of surplus, total cost, and net profit. After creating your spreadsheet model, provide an answer for the profit corresponding to average demand (60,000 units)? (5 points) b. Modeling demand as a normal random variable with a mean of 60,000 and a standard deviation of 15,000, simulate the sales of the Dougie doll using a production quantity of 60,000 units. What is the estimate of the average profit and standard deviation for profit associated with the production quantity of 60,000 dolls? (15 points)