(20 marks) Two years ago, a statistician estimated that the probability of the exis- tence of Superman is 0.15 based on

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(20 marks) Two years ago, a statistician estimated that the probability of the exis- tence of Superman is 0.15 based on

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20 Marks Two Years Ago A Statistician Estimated That The Probability Of The Exis Tence Of Superman Is 0 15 Based On 1
20 Marks Two Years Ago A Statistician Estimated That The Probability Of The Exis Tence Of Superman Is 0 15 Based On 1 (73.67 KiB) Viewed 35 times
(20 marks) Two years ago, a statistician estimated that the probability of the exis- tence of Superman is 0.15 based on the evidences in the physical world. He wants to improve his estimation by considering the evidences in morality. He estimates that if Superman exists, the probability that Superman prevents evil (that is, evil does not exist) is 0.75. If Superman does not exist, the probability that the evil exists is 0.5. Given the fact that evil exists, what is the revised probability of the existence of Superman?
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