It is the early 2000s. The World Health Organization is planning
a program for the global eradication of polio by the year 2000.
Muara (a fictitious nation), may become one of the countries
selected to test the effectiveness of WHO’s polio eradication
strategies. Unfortunately, little is known about polio in Muara.
The Minister of Health therefore assigned the task of assessing the
polio situation to a new Ministry worker who has recently completed
her Master of Public Health degree in Epidemiology at Drexel
University, and who is about to become the District Health Officer
in the Bantar District of Muara.
The Bantar District is a relatively poor rural district with a
single hospital and several health centers. Every year, the
District’s government collects reliable census data on how many
people live in each villages in the District, including each
person’s age.
The Bantar District requires the hospital, all health centers,
and all health workers to report every newly diagnosed case and
every death to the District Health Officer. It is thought that
compliance with reporting is good. However, until now, no one at
the Ministry has been able to assemble or analyze these data.
Quesion 1: How would the new Ministry worker
estimate the incidence rate of polio among
children under age five in the Bantar District in the previous
calendar year? What will be the sources of the data for this
measure?
Another way to measure the impact of polio in a community is by
tracking how many children have severe leg muscle weakness or
paralysis (“lameness”), since children affected by polio may
develop this long-term condition as a consequence of polio
infection.
Question 2: What percent of two-year-old
children had received at least one dose of the vaccine (this is
known as “vaccine coverage”)? Show the numerator and denominator of
your calculation, then express vaccine coverage as a
percentage.
Question 3: What was the prevalence of lameness
among vaccinated children (i.e., those who had
received at least one dose)? Show the numerator and denominator of
your calculation, then express the rate as cases per 1,000
children.
Question 4: What was the prevalence of lameness
among the unvaccinated (no dose) children? Show
the numerator and denominator of your calculation, then express the
rate as cases per 1,000 children.
Question 5: Compare the prevalence of lameness
in populations according to their vaccination status. What does
this comparison tell you?
Table: Lameness by Vaccination Status among Two-Year-Old Children, Bantar District, 2005. Lameness Status Lame Not Lame Total One or More Doses O 6 525 531 Polio Vaccination Status No Doses 33 1,457 1,490 Total 39 1,982 2,021
It is the early 2000s. The World Health Organization is planning a program for the global eradication of polio by the ye
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