We are thinking of filming the Mike Faraday story. We know that if the film is a flop, we will lose $4 million, and if t

[answerhappygod]

We are thinking of filming the Mike Faraday story. We know that
if the film is a flop, we will lose $4 million, and if the film is
a success, we will earn $15 million. Beforehand, we believe that
there is a 10% chance that the Mike Faraday story will be a hit.
Before filming, we have the option of paying the noted movie critic
Roger Alert $1 million for his view of the film. In the past, Alert
has predicted 60% of all actual hits to be hits and 90% of all
actual flops to be flops. If we decide not to film the story, we
have the option (or not) of filming some tv commercials advertising
Faraday’s life. If the commercials are a success we will earn $2
million and if they are a flop we will lose half a million. Since
we are not sure about the probability for success of these
commercials, we will consider both scenarios (successful and flop)
to be equally likely.
Draw and solve the decision tree for this problem and state the
optimal policy, include the optimal expected payoff.