- Question 20 1 Point Possible Graded Results Hidden Consider The Following Equation Yms 80 Diinsurgencyms As E 1 (35.48 KiB) Viewed 163 times
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- Question 20 1 Point Possible Graded Results Hidden Consider The Following Equation Yms 80 Diinsurgencyms As E 2 (287.7 KiB) Viewed 163 times
Dell (2012) identifies how insurgency during the Mexican Revolution, a major early 20th century armed conflict, impacted subsequent government policies and long-run economic development by exploiting within-state variation. Using novel municipal-level dataset on revolutionary insurgency, the study documents that municipalities experiencing severe drought just prior to the Revolution were substantially more likely to have insurgent activity than municipalities where drought was less severe. The author ran the following regression to test whether drought severity in the years leading up to the Revolution affected insurgency: insurgencyms = Yo + 71 droughtms + X* B+ ag + Ems where insurgencyms is a dummy variable equal to 1 if the citizens of municipality m - during the period between 1910 and 1918 — used violent force in a sustained attempt to subvert representatives of the Mexican government (i.e. local authorities and the military) or to confiscate others' property. droughtms measures the severity of the drought during the 1906-1910 period, Xms contains a vector of time invariant geographic characteristics, and as is a state fixed effect. (An adapted version of) Table 1 presents the summary statistics from the study: Mean S.D. p10 p90 Rainfall 0.78 0.21 0.49 1.00 Insurgency 0.59 0.49 0.0 1.0 Agrarian reform 0.49 0.26 0.13 0.82 Public employees/1,000 inhab. (1940) 20.03 9.5 2.0 25.4 Log income (2000) 7.7 0.9 6.8 8.8 Notes: This table provides the mean, standard deviation, 10th percentile, and 90th percentile for rainfall and for the paper's main outcome variables. Rainfall is 1906-1910 precipitation during non-harvest months as a percentage of long-run average precipitation, censored above at one. Insurgency is a dummy equal to one if the municipality experienced insurgent activity during 1910-1918 and equal to zero otherwise. Agrarian reform is the percentage of a municipality's surface area redistributed through agrarian reform. Log income is the log of mean municipal income in 2000. (An adapted version of) Table 7 presents the economic outcomes today. Services Overall log wage Agricultural log wage Industrial log wage Percent no water Percent no electricity log wage (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Panel A: IV -0.292 -0.322 -0.289 -0.218 14.095 2.922 Insurgency (0.141) (0.274) (0.169) (0.109) (6.255) (1.657) Panel B: OLS -0.109 -0.082 -0.122 -0.086 0.715 0.404 Insurgency (0.021) (0.044) (0.021) (0.019) (1.603) (0.465) Observations 734,127 53,363 222,267 458,497 210 210 Clusters 210 210 210 210 210 210 7.72 7.13 7.73 7.78 11.12 3.32 Mean Dep. Var. Notes: Insurgency is a dummy equal to one if the municipality experienced insurgent activity during 1910-1918 and equal to zero otherwise. Panel A reports instrumental variable estimates, with insurgency instrumented by 1906-1910 precipitation during non-harvest months as a percentage of long-run average precipitation. Panel B reports ordinary least squares estimates. All columns include controls for long-run average precipitation, long- run average minimum and maximum temperature, slope, and elevation, as well as state fixed effects. The dependent variable in columns 1 through 4 is log income in 2000. The sample in column 1 includes all individuals earning positive income, in column 2 it includes individuals working in agriculture, in column 3 it includes individuals working in industry, and in column 4 it includes individuals working in services. In column 5 the dependent variable is the percentage of households in a municipality who lack access to running water, and in column 6 it is the percentage of households who lack access to electricity. Robust standard errors, clustered by municipality, are in parentheses.