discussion so far regarding project management, critical path
method is based upon deterministic data. This means we know how
long something will take or we know how many resources are
necessary. Have you ever managed a project when everything you
estimated before the project is initiated turns out to be
true/correct in the end? This project will provide you with a
better for tool for estimating project duration and modifying
behavior and estimating results. For example, while constructing a
warehouse, Costco was obviously well organized. They constructed a
100,000 sq. ft. building in 100 days from ground breaking to store
opening. In comparison to a different building being constructed at
about the same time, this other building was 25% the size of Costco
and took nearly 8 months to complete. The project manager of the
Costco building clearly understands the importance of project
planning. Too often people are reluctant to provide time estimates
for project steps. Most people can at least provide a worst case
versus best case scenario. This information, although not
preferable, is sufficient to at least build a probabilistic model
of the proposed project plan. The RiskAMP website provides an
overview article of “The Beta PERT Distribution.” This webpage will
give you some understanding of the Pert distribution. As Pert
distribution application is beyond the scope of this course, we
will use a much simpler approach. This lab will give you experience
with making project planning decisions under uncertainty of your
estimates. Conduct this Lab Assignment in Microsoft Excel.
- Lab Project Management Monte Carlo Assignment All Of The Discussion So Far Regarding Project Management Critical Pat 1 (122.6 KiB) Viewed 22 times
value.
What is the Critical Path for the above activity diagram?
Provide a 1000 iteration monte-carlo simulation in Excel. We
will use the NORMAL distribution for all our randomly generated
times. Refer to the video. Provide the Excel file in your
submission. Copy and paste a screen shot of your Excel file
monte-carlo simulation in the Word submission document. You do not
need to provide the complete simulation in the Word document – just
a screen shot of the first few rows of the model.
Provide a histogram of expected total project completion time –
use 5 day increments. Copy and paste your histogram in your Word
Document. Comment in one or two sentences regarding the
results.
Based upon your simulation results, what is the probability that
the project will EXCEED the Critical Path provided in Question Two
above? In one or two sentences, provide a hypothesis of why your
project may EXCEED the Critical Path.
Provide a one paragraph discussion of the appropriateness of
this approach in your current or future role.
Time estimates Task Task ID Obtain a building permit from A county B Dig foundation and pour footers A C Dig well for water A Deliver framing and roofing D A materials Frame walls B,D Install septic - sewer system A Rough plumbing - connect water E,C, and F and sewer Roof building E Paint exterior E Move in manufacturing I,H, and G equipment EF E F G H I J Predecessor(s) Most Optimistic 3 5 5 3 10 2 5 10 10 18 Most Likely 15 8 8 10 15 5 9 15 12 20 Worst Case Time 36 24 12 15 22 8 25 33 32 30