Answer Happy

Question 2 I A standard Bayesian expression is given by: P(A,IE) = P(E|A,)P(A) Σ"P(E|A,)P(A,) = 1 a) Formulate the expression for r= n (show all working) 15 Marks] а b) A quality control engineer for a turbine repair company has received disturbing reports of premature turbine blade failures following maintenance where turbine blades have been replaced. The engineer checks supplier records and discovers that turbine blades are provided by three separate suppliers. Reynolds Blades (RB) is the main supplier providing 50% of the blades used. Smith Blades (SB) and Delta Blades (DB) provide 30% and 20% respectively. Historic records reveal that RB has a manufacturing defect rate of 5 per 1000, SB has a manufacturing defect rate of 10 per 1000, and DB 15 per 1000. When blades are delivered to the repair company they are stored in a common bin. Calculate the probabilities using Bayesian statistics that a blade failure following its fitment during maintenance was supplied by RB, SB or DB. (you must show all working to gain full marks) [15 Marks c) Confirm your calculations from Part B to this question using an event tree. [10 Marks]