Answer Happy

11 log(y) 10 9 00 100,000 50,000 6 10,000 5,000 5 3 1,000 TMS 1000 Intel 8008 Intel 4004 1970 1972 Zilog Z80 RCA 1802 Intel 8085 8080 Motorola 680000 1974 1976 Intel 8086 Intel 8088 。 M 650 Technology Motorola 6809 • 1978 Motorola 68020 Intel 80286 Intel 80386 Transistor count 1980 65602 Intel 80186 。 WDC • 65C816 Nov 1982 1984 10,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 1,000,000,000 500,000,000 100,000,000 50,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count) Data source: Wikipedia The data visualization is available at OurWorldinData.org. There you find more visualizations and research on this topic. 1,000,000 500,000 100,000 50,000 The following is the same plot but with the common logarithm of the y-axis shown. You can see that log(y) goes up uniformly. ARM 10,000 5,000 1,000 ARM 2 2016 1986 1988 Intel 8008 1970 Intel 4004 PEC WRL ARM 3 ARM 6 Motorola 6800 1972 1990 1992 Moore's Law - The number of transistors on integrat Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated c This advancement is important as other aspects of technological progress - such as processin linked to Moore's law. 50,000,000,000 Motorola TMS 1000 Zilog 280 6809 Questions to be answered in your Brightspace Discussion: 1974 1994 RCA 1802 Intel 8085 Intel 8080 • Motorola 68000 1996 Intel 8086 Intel 8088 1976 1978 Technology ARM STOMI 1998 Intel 803860 Motorola 680200 Intel 80286 65C02 1980 2000 TI Explorer's 32-bit Lisp machine chip 1982 Intel 80186 Part c: Do you think that your prediction in Part b is believable? Why or why not? Intel 80486 1984 2002 Intel 1960 Novin NC4016 ARM 2 ARM 1 1986 Part a: The number of transistors per IC in 1972 seems to be about 4,000 (a rough estimate by eye). Using this estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be 20 years later, in 1992? Prediction = Number 2004 1988 Part b: From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2012. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040? 2006 PEC WRL MultiTitan Pentium ARM 3 1990 R4000 ● ARM 6 2008 2010 2012 1992 AMD K6 Pentium Pro Pentium I 0 Klamath AMD K5 • SA-110 ARM700 1994 Pentium 4 Willamette Pentium II Mobile Dixona AMD K7 AMD K6-III Licensed un 2014 Itanium 2 Mac Pentiu Itanium 2 McK Pentiur Pentium 4 Northw 1996 Per 1998 Pent Pentium Data source: Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count) The data visualization is available at OurWorldinData.org. There you find more visualizations and research on this topic. ARM STOMI 2000

From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2012. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040? In some applications, the variable being studied increases so quickly ("exponentially") that a regular graph isn't informative. There, a regular graph would show data close to 0 and then a sudden spike at the very end. Instead, for these applications, we often use logarithmic scales. We replace the y-axis tick marks of 1, 2, 3, 4, etc. with y-axis tick marks of 10¹ = 10, 10²= 100, 10³ = 1000, 104 = 10000, etc. In other words, the logarithms of the new tick marks are equally spaced. Technology is one area where progress is extraordinarily rapid. Moore's Law states that the progress of technology (measured in different ways) doubles every 2 years. A common example counts the number of transitors per integrated circuit. A regular y-axis scale is appropriate when a trend is linear, i.e. 100 transistors, 200 transistors, 300 transistors, 400 transistors, etc. However, technology actually increased at a much quicker pace such as 100 transistors,. 1,000 transistors, 10,000 transistors, 100,000 transistors, etc. The following is a plot of the number of transistors per integrated circuit over the period 1971 2008 taken from https://ourworldindata.org/technological-progress (that site contains a lot of data, not just for technology). At first, this graph seems to show a steady progression until you look carefully at the y-axis ... it's not linear. From the graph, it seems that from 1971 to 1981 the number of transistors went from about 1,000 to 40,000. Moore's Law predicts that in 10 years, it would double 5 times, i.e. go from 1,000 to 32,000, and the actual values (using very rough estimates) seem to support this. Moore's Law - The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2018) Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. This advancement is important as other aspects of technological progress-such as processing speed or the price of electronic products - are linked to Moore's law. 50,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 Transistor count 1,000,000,000 500,000,000 100,000,000 50,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 1,000,000 500,000 100,000 50,000 11 10 7 log(y) 10,000 TMS 1000 Zlog 280 • 5,000 Intel 8008 Intel 4004 1,000 1970 Motorla RCA 1802 ntel 8085 Intel 8080 Motopla 1972 1974 Motorola Intel 8086 Intel 8088 1976 Technology TI Explorer's 32-bit Lisp machine chip Intel 80386 Motorola 68020 Intel 80286 1978 sistor count 288₂ 1980 intel 80186 escale 1982 10,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 Intel 80486 1,000,000,000 500,000,000 1984 100,000,000 50,000,000 N4016 10,000,000 5,000,000 ARM 2 ARM 1 Intl ARM 3 1986 REG 1988 ARM 6 1990 AMD K6, Pentium Pro Kamath 。 Pentium AMD K5 SAXO 4000 Pentium Il Mobile Dixono AMD K7 ARM700 1992 Itanium 2 Madison 6M Pentium D Smithfield Itanium 2 McKinley Pentium 4 Prescott-20 1994 Pentium 4 Northwood Pentium 4 Willamette Pentium II Tualan Pentium Ill Coppermine Data source: Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count) The data visualization is available at OurWorldinData.org. There you find more visualizations and research on this topic. 1996 AMD K6-1 The following is the same plot but with the common logarithm of the y-axis shown. You can see that log(y) goes up uniformly. 8-core Xeon Nehalem-EX Six-core Xeon 7400 Dual-core Itanium 20 Pentium D Presler POWERE anium 2 with MB cache STO Pentium 1 Katmal Pentium If Deschules 1998 2000 AMD KBPentium 4 Prescott Barton 2002 IBM 213 Storage Controller. 18-core Xeon Haswell-E5- Xbox One main SoC 61-core Xeon Phi88 12-core POWER 2004 72-core Xeon Phi Centria 2400 GC2 IPU SPARC M7 32-core AMD Epyo Apple A12X Bionic ... 2006 Core i7-core 2M L3 7 (Quad) Core 2 Duo Wolfdale Core 2 Duo Conroe Cell Core 2 Duo Wolfdale 3M Core 2 Duo Allendale Pentium 4 Cedar Mill Atom ARM Cortex-A9 2008 2010 Tegra Xavier Soc Qualcomm Snapdragon Box/S HiSilicon Kirin 980+ Apple A HiSilicon Kirin 710 10-core Corg 17 Broadwell- Dual-core GPU Is Cofe 17 Broadwell-U Quad-core + GPU GT2 Core i7 Skylake K GPU Core i7 Haswel Apple A7 (dual-core ARM64 "mobile SoC) Quad-core 2012 Moore's Law The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approxima This advancement is important as other aspects of technological progress-such as processing speed or the price of ele linked to Moore's law. 50,000,000,000 Pentium Pro 2014 2016 2018 Licensed under CC-BY-SA by the author Max AMD K Kamath 72-core) SPAR IBM 213 Storage Com 18-core Xeon Haswell Xbox One main Se 61-core Xeon Phi 12-core POWE 8-core Xeon Nehalem-EX- Six-core Xeon 7400 8 Dual-core Itanium 20 Pentium D Prosier POWERE Itanium 2 Madison 6MO Pentium D Smithfield Itanium 2 McKinley Our W in D. Pentium 4 Prescott-20 。 Pentium 4 Northwood Pentium 4 Wilamette Pentium II Tualatin Pentium Il Mobile Dixon AMD K& AMD KBPentium 4 Prescott Barton 0.0 AMCore i7 (Quas AMD 10 gad Core 2 Duo W 2 Duo Conroe Core 2 Duo Core 2 Duo Aller Pentium 4 Cedar Pentium II Katmai Pentium Il Deschutes Atom Pentium I Coppermine ARM Cortex-A9