The wedding date for a couple is quickly approaching, and the wedding planner must provide the caterer an estimate of ho
Posted: Mon Jul 11, 2022 11:43 am
The wedding date for a couple is quickly approaching, and thewedding planner must provide the caterer an estimate of how manypeople will attend the reception so that the appropriate quantityof food is prepared for the buffet. The following table containsinformation on the number of RSVP guests for the 145 invitations.Unfortunately, the number of guests does not always correspond tothe number of RSVPed guests.
Based on her experience, the wedding planner knows it isextremely rare for guests to attend a wedding if they notified thatthey will not be attending. Therefore, the wedding planner willassume that no one from these 50 invitations will attend.The wedding planner estimates that the each of the 25guests planning to come solo has a 75% chance of attendingalone, a 20% chance of not attending, and a 5% chance of bringing acompanion. For each of the 60 RSVPs who plan to bring acompanion, there is a 90% chance that she or he will attend with acompanion, a 5% chance of attending solo, and a 5% chance of notattending at all. For the 10 people who have not responded, thewedding planner assumes that there is an 80% chance that each willnot attend, a 15% chance each will attend alone, and a 5% chanceeach will attend with a companion.
(a)
Assist the wedding planner by constructing a spreadsheetsimulation model to determine the expected number of guests whowill attend the reception. (Use at least 1,000 trials. Round youranswer to two decimal places.)
expected number of guests:
(b)
To be accommodating hosts, the couple has instructed the weddingplanner to use the Monte Carlo simulation model todetermine X, the minimum number of guests for whichthe caterer should prepare the meal, so that there is at least a90% chance that the actual attendance is less than or equalto X. What is the best estimate for the valueof X?
P(X ≤ ---Select--- 125 130 135 140 145 ) ≈ 89.3%
and
P(X ≤ ---Select--- 126 131 135 141 146 ) ≈ 91.6%.
So ---Select--- 126 131 135 141 146 guestswould be a relatively safe number on which to base mealpreparations.
Show your work. Upload your spreadsheet. (Submit a file with amaximum size of 1 MB.)
Based on her experience, the wedding planner knows it isextremely rare for guests to attend a wedding if they notified thatthey will not be attending. Therefore, the wedding planner willassume that no one from these 50 invitations will attend.The wedding planner estimates that the each of the 25guests planning to come solo has a 75% chance of attendingalone, a 20% chance of not attending, and a 5% chance of bringing acompanion. For each of the 60 RSVPs who plan to bring acompanion, there is a 90% chance that she or he will attend with acompanion, a 5% chance of attending solo, and a 5% chance of notattending at all. For the 10 people who have not responded, thewedding planner assumes that there is an 80% chance that each willnot attend, a 15% chance each will attend alone, and a 5% chanceeach will attend with a companion.
(a)
Assist the wedding planner by constructing a spreadsheetsimulation model to determine the expected number of guests whowill attend the reception. (Use at least 1,000 trials. Round youranswer to two decimal places.)
expected number of guests:
(b)
To be accommodating hosts, the couple has instructed the weddingplanner to use the Monte Carlo simulation model todetermine X, the minimum number of guests for whichthe caterer should prepare the meal, so that there is at least a90% chance that the actual attendance is less than or equalto X. What is the best estimate for the valueof X?
P(X ≤ ---Select--- 125 130 135 140 145 ) ≈ 89.3%
and
P(X ≤ ---Select--- 126 131 135 141 146 ) ≈ 91.6%.
So ---Select--- 126 131 135 141 146 guestswould be a relatively safe number on which to base mealpreparations.
Show your work. Upload your spreadsheet. (Submit a file with amaximum size of 1 MB.)