Answer Happy

Problem 12-09 (Algorithmic) A project has four activities (A, B, C, and D) that must be performed sequentially. The probability distributions for the time required to complete each of the activities are as follows: Activity A B C B C D Total Activity Time (weeks) 8 9 10 11 B C In 19 D 5 Total 7 15 17 19 21 23 12 14 a. Provide the base-case, worst-case, and best-case calculations for the time to complete the project. Activity Base case A 0.9044 0.7728 weeks 0.3881 weeks 0.6087 Probability 0.29 weeks weeks weeks 0.30 0.25 0.16 0.16 0.55 0.29 0.11 0.28 Activity Random Number Completion Time A weeks weeks 0.37 0.21 0.03 0.63 0.37 Worst case b. Use the random numbers 0.9044, 0.7728, 0.3881 and 0.6087 to simulate the completion time of the project in weeks. weeks weeks weeks weeks weeks Best case weeks weeks weeks weeks weeks weeks weeks weeks c. Discuss how simulation could be used to estimate the probability that the project can be completed in weeks or less. Simulation provides a distribution of project completion times. The of times weeks and under can be used to estimate the probability that the project will be completed within weeks.