Answer Happy

1. A. You have just been hired by a soccer team that plays in England premier league. Your boss thought there is a problem in forecasting pizza needs to prepare for every match. Specifically, they serve Nino's Bellissima Pizza, an expensive elegant caviar dressed pizza, exclusively for VIP section. Each pizza costs 90$ and is highly perishable. Knowing this, you have asked for data on last years of historical sales as well as any forecasts, promotions, pricing changes, or competitive analyses made during this time. Your boss laughs and provides you with all the data they have: The actual sales from last 13 games! Game 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Sales 159 161 121 216 122 136 195 210 222 234 246 220 FA F
Demand planners! Use the following different time series forecasting methods to develop forecasts for matches 1 to 13 when is applicable. a. Naive b. Simple average c. Moving average (use 2 period and 3 period lengths for periods used in calculating averages) d. Exponential smoothing (Try alpha=0.1 AND alpha=0.5 AND alpha=0.9) e. Compare methods (a) to (d) using MAD, MSE and MAPE. Is there one method which appears to be best using all 3 different error evaluation methods?