16. A pharmacist has been monitoring sales of a certain over-the-counter pain reliever. Daily sales dur- ing the last 15

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16 A Pharmacist Has Been Monitoring Sales Of A Certain Over The Counter Pain Reliever Daily Sales Dur Ing The Last 15 1 (65.5 KiB) Viewed 10 times

16. A pharmacist has been monitoring sales of a certain over-the-counter pain reliever. Daily sales dur- ing the last 15 days were Day: Number sold: Day: Number sold: 1 36 10 48 2 38 11 52 3 42 12 55 4 44 13 54 5 48 14 56 6 49 15 57 7 50 8 49 9 52 a. Which method would you suggest using to predict future sales a linear trend equation or trend- adjusted exponential smoothing? Why? b. If you learn that on some days the store ran out of the specific pain reliever, would that knowl- edge cause you any concern? Explain. c. Assume that the data refer to demand rather than sales. Using trend-adjusted smoothing with an initial forecast of 50 for week 8, an initial trend estimate of 2, and a = B = .3, develop forecasts for days 9 through 16. What is the MSE for the eight forecasts for which there are actual data?