2.2. Suppose that the daily log return of a security follows the model r = 0.01 +0.2r,-2 + a₁, where {a,) is a Gaussian
Posted: Sun Jul 03, 2022 9:58 am
2.2. Suppose that the daily log return of a security follows the model r = 0.01 +0.2r,-2 + a₁, where {a,) is a Gaussian white noise series with mean zero and variance 0.02. What are the mean and variance of the return series r? Compute the lag-1 and lag-2 autocorrelations of r₁. Assume that r100 = -0.01, and r99 = 0.02. Compute the 1 and 2-step-ahead forecasts of the return series at the forecast origin = 100. What are the associated standard deviations of the forecast errors?