Answer Happy

QUESTION 7 Consider the time series below with 15 observations. Two types of forecasts are shown: 4 period moving average and Simple Exponential Smoothing with an alpha of 0.5. Fill in the blanks where appropriate and calculate the BIAS, and MAD for both methods. Period Sales 4 period Average Error Abs Error Exponential Smoothing alpha=0.5 Error Abs Error 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 5 8 16 17 22 28 26 35 36 39 44 41 47 55 60 5.25 11.75 日四四四四四四四 8.25 20.75 23.25 27.75 31.25 34.00 38.50 40.00 42.75 46.75 5.25 11.75 8.25 7.75 10.00 2.50 7.00 12.25 13.25 7.75 10.00 2.50 7.00 12.25 13.25 14.13 18.06 23.03 24.52 29.76 32.88 35.94 39.97 40.48 43.74 49.37 7.88 9.94 2.97 10.48 6.24 6.12 8.06 1.03 6.52 11.26 10.63 7.88 9.94 2.97 10.48 6.24 6.12 8.06 1.03 6.52 11.26 10.63 Summarize your computations in the table below. BIAS MAD 4 Period Average Exponential Smoothing Based on the above table, which is the better forecast? Why? Use the best between the two methods to forecast sales for the 16" period.