Answer Happy

a) Using a spreadsheet application and the information above, determine the probability of choosing "private automobile", "bus" and "metro train" within Hawkins by applying the multinomial logit model. Clearly describe the steps in applying the model and also any assumptions made and present final probability values using summary tables of zone to zone probabilities for each mode of transport. (8 marks) b) Use your result from Problem 2 to determine the number of trips per mode for Hawkins. Similar to Problem 3 part a), present final trip numbers using summary tables of zone to zone trips for each mode of transport. What mode of transport consists the most number of trips, is this logical given the base data provided? Comment on the validity of the results comparing the accessibility to each mode and the demand estimated by the mode choice mode. Clearly explain your response. (7 marks) c) Mayor Kline of Hawkins is disappointed with uptake of bus services in the community and has reorganised the budget to make buses free of charge (out of pocket cost = 0). What impact does this have on the mode choice? How many additional bus trips will be present based on an application of the multinomial logit model? Discuss (in point form) one advantage and one disadvantage of the mayor's proposal from a transport operations and infrastructure perspective. (5 marks) d) Given the proposed developments, Mayor Kline is also concerned about the number of private automobile trips that are occurring in Hawkins which can exacerbate the existing congestion levels. Therefore, in addition to the free bus service, the mayor announces congestion pricing which increases the private automobile out of pocket costs to $4.50 (450 cents) for trips entering or exiting the economic Zones of 3 and 4. What impact does this have on the mode choice? What are the new demands for each mode based on an application of the multinomial logit model? Discuss (in point form) one advantage and one disadvantage of the mayor's proposal from a transport operations and infrastructure perspective. (5 marks)
Problem 3: Mode Choice (25 marks) Hawkins has 3 primary modes of transport available to users for zone to zone travel: private automobile (car) (C), bus (R) and metro trains (M) and each have the following properties. • Private automobile A study regarding the cost of owning a vehicle in Hawkins has been conducted in the past. The average cost for registering and maintaining a vehicle per trip is $1.50 (150 cents). This could be considered as the out of pocket cost for using a private automobile for all trips using this mode. On average, parking takes 5 minutes in Hawkins. o Zone to zone average private automobile travel times are presented in Table 6. . Bus The average waiting time for a bus service in Hawkins is 10 minutes. Zone to zone average bus travel times are presented in Table 7 (note this includes time for access and transfer, if required). Bus fares between zones are presented in Table 7 (signifying the out-of- pocket costs). • Metro Train • The average waiting time for a metro service in Hawkins is 2 minutes. Zone to zone average metro train travel times are presented in Table 9 (note this includes time for access and transfer, if required). o Metro train fares between zones are presented in Table 10. No intrazonal trips are made using this mode of transport. Table 6: Private automobile travel time matrix Private Automobile Travel Times (mins) Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 5 4 Zone 4 Zone 1 10 9 Zone 2 5 3 12 18 Zone 3 14 15 8 15 12 Zone 4 20 14 9 Table 7: Bus travel time matrix Bus Travel Times (mins) Zone 1 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 1 10 15 15 Zone 2 20 21 25 18 Zone 3 20 24 Zone 4 15 20 17 Zone 2 12 11 20 25 Table 8: Bus fare matrix (out of pocket costs) Bus Fares (cents) Zone 1 35 Zone 2 40 Zone 4 50 Zone 1 Zone 2 65 40 80 Zone 3 60 65 80 Zone 4 50 80 55 Table 9: Metro Train travel time matrix Metro Train Travel Times (mins) Zone 1 Zone 2 12 Zone 4 Zone 1 26 Zone 2 15 14 21 Zone 3 6 8 Zone 4 25 Table 10: Metro Train fares matrix (out of pocket costs) Metro Train Fares (cents) Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 40 140 180 Zone 1 Zone 2 65 100 140 Zone 3 140 100 100 Zone 4 180 140 100 A multinomial logit model is applied to quantify the mode choice between "private automobile", "bus" and "metro train" within Hawkins. The calibrated utility function for all three modes has the structure presented in Equation 3: U₁=A₁-0.30X₁-0. 20X2-0.25X₂-0.015X₁ Equation 3 Where: A Calibration constant, (A=0, A= -0.4, Ax=-0.2) X-Zone to zone waiting times for each mode of transport, " X₂ = Zone to zone travel times for each mode of transport, "" X₁ = Parking time allocated for zone to zone travel (private automobile mode only) X, Zone to zone "out of pocket costs for each mode of transport, "" Zone 3 50 70 65 Zone 3 18 6