We go back in time and collect the results of the Gallup pre-election poll of 1500 voters (in parentheses) for the follo
Posted: Mon Nov 15, 2021 10:47 am
We go back in time and collect the results of the Gallup
pre-election poll of 1500 voters (in parentheses) for the following
six U.S. presidential elections:
YEAR
DEMOCRAT
REPUBLICAN
1968
Humphrey (50%)
Nixon (50%)
1972
McGovern (38%)
Nixon (62%)
1976
Carter (51%)
Ford (49%)
1980
Carter (48%)
Reagan (52%)
1984
Mondale (41%)
Reagan (59%)
1988
Dukakis (44%)
Bush (56%)
a. In each case, construct a 95% confidence interval for the
proportion of Democratic supporters for the whole U.S.
population.
b. Now indicate whether the interval includes or fails to
include the true population proportion given in the following list
of actual voting results:
YEAR
DEMOCRAT
ACTUAL VOTING
INCLUDES
1968
Humphrey
49.7%
Y/N
1972
McGovern
38.2%
Y/N
1976
Carter
51.1%
Y/N
1980
Carter
44.7%
Y/N
1984
Mondale
40.8%
Y/N
1988
Dukakis
46.1%
Y/N
pre-election poll of 1500 voters (in parentheses) for the following
six U.S. presidential elections:
YEAR
DEMOCRAT
REPUBLICAN
1968
Humphrey (50%)
Nixon (50%)
1972
McGovern (38%)
Nixon (62%)
1976
Carter (51%)
Ford (49%)
1980
Carter (48%)
Reagan (52%)
1984
Mondale (41%)
Reagan (59%)
1988
Dukakis (44%)
Bush (56%)
a. In each case, construct a 95% confidence interval for the
proportion of Democratic supporters for the whole U.S.
population.
b. Now indicate whether the interval includes or fails to
include the true population proportion given in the following list
of actual voting results:
YEAR
DEMOCRAT
ACTUAL VOTING
INCLUDES
1968
Humphrey
49.7%
Y/N
1972
McGovern
38.2%
Y/N
1976
Carter
51.1%
Y/N
1980
Carter
44.7%
Y/N
1984
Mondale
40.8%
Y/N
1988
Dukakis
46.1%
Y/N