Answer Happy

1 1 t 8 9 9 Exercise 18-1 Algo 1 10 2 11 3 12 4 11 6 6 8 N00 10 10 12 6 12 2 yt 3 4 5 The accompanying data file contains 10 observations for t and yt- picture Click here for the Excel Data File 6 A 3-period moving average is plotted along with the actual series. 7 8 9 10 11 15 12 13 14 14- 15 13- 16 17 12- 18 11 - 10 - 19 20 21 22 91 8 7 23 24 25 6-1 26 5 0 27 2 3 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 28 t 29 30 31 32

a. Comment on smoothing. The jagged graph represents the original series and the smoother graph represents its 3-period moving average. The smoother graph represents the original series and the jagged graph represents its 3-period moving average. We cannot tell which graph represents the original series and which its 3-period moving average. b-1. Use the 3-period moving average to make in-sample forecasts. (Round intermediate calculations to at least 4 decimal places and final answers to 2 decimal places.) ŷt t 1 2 3 4 yt 10 11 12 11 5 6 7 8 12 8 8 6 12 9 10 10 11 b-2. Compute the resulting MSE and MAD. (Round intermediate calculations to at least 4 decimal places and final answers to 2 decimal places.) MSE MAD

c. Make a forecast for period 11. (Round intermediate calculations to at least 4 decimal places and final answer to 2 decimal places.) у