The operations manager for a local bus company wants to decide whether he should purchase a small, medium, or large new
Posted: Mon Nov 15, 2021 10:00 am
The operations manager for a local bus company wants to decide
whether he should purchase a small, medium, or large new bus for
his company. He estimates that the annual profits (in $000) will
vary depending upon whether passenger demand is low, moderate, or
high, as follows.
Demand
Bus Size
Low
Medium
High
Small
50
60
70
Medium
40
80
90
Large
20
50
120
Prior Probability
0.3
0.3
0.4
Question :
1.
If he uses the maximum likelihood criterion, which size bus will
he decide to purchase?
choices: ["Large", "Small", "Medium",
"Either small or medium", "Either medium or large", "Either small
or large"]
ii. If he uses the equally likely
approach, which size bus will he decide to purchase?
choices: ["Medium", "Small", "Large",
"Either of the three sizes", "Either small or large", "Either
medium or small"]
iii. If he uses maximax criterion, which size
will he decide to purchase?
choices: ["Large", "Medium", "Small",
"Either small or medium", "Either small or large"]
iv. If he uses Baye's decision rule, which size
will he decide to purchase?
choices: ["Medium", "Large", "Small",
"Either small or medium", "Either medium or large"]
v. What is the expected annual profit for the
bus that he will decide to purchase using Bayes' decision rule?
choices: ["$72,000", "$87,000",
"$69,000", "$61,000", "$15,000"]
vi. What is the expected value of perfect
information?
whether he should purchase a small, medium, or large new bus for
his company. He estimates that the annual profits (in $000) will
vary depending upon whether passenger demand is low, moderate, or
high, as follows.
Demand
Bus Size
Low
Medium
High
Small
50
60
70
Medium
40
80
90
Large
20
50
120
Prior Probability
0.3
0.3
0.4
Question :
1.
If he uses the maximum likelihood criterion, which size bus will
he decide to purchase?
choices: ["Large", "Small", "Medium",
"Either small or medium", "Either medium or large", "Either small
or large"]
ii. If he uses the equally likely
approach, which size bus will he decide to purchase?
choices: ["Medium", "Small", "Large",
"Either of the three sizes", "Either small or large", "Either
medium or small"]
iii. If he uses maximax criterion, which size
will he decide to purchase?
choices: ["Large", "Medium", "Small",
"Either small or medium", "Either small or large"]
iv. If he uses Baye's decision rule, which size
will he decide to purchase?
choices: ["Medium", "Large", "Small",
"Either small or medium", "Either medium or large"]
v. What is the expected annual profit for the
bus that he will decide to purchase using Bayes' decision rule?
choices: ["$72,000", "$87,000",
"$69,000", "$61,000", "$15,000"]
vi. What is the expected value of perfect
information?