Answer Happy

Question 6: Tom is a cat that lives in a house. Near one of the windows in the house, there is a small table with a vase on top. Each day, the owner of the house has 30% chance of forgetting to close the windows before going to work. If the windows are open, there is 10% chance that the vase will be blown off the table and broken by strong wind. If the windows are closed, there is 50% chance that the vase will be knocked off the table and broken by Tom. Assume that the wind and Tom are the only possible causes for the vase to break, and that Tom does not get near the table when the windows are open. (a) What is the probability that the vase will be broken on any particular day? (b) One day, the vase is found broken. What is the probability that it was broken by Tom?