5. The following question concern this key table from the paper by Phillip Verwimp entitled "Machetes and Firearms: The
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5. The following question concern this key table from the paper by Phillip Verwimp entitled "Machetes and Firearms: The Organization of Massacres in Rwanda". Genderage Table VI. Accounting for Type of Weapon Used Variable Mindd Model 2 Individuale Age .0329 0302 19.56) Ape (8.31) -0004 --0003- (-9.52) Gender (-7.57) -1958 056 (-1.66) (0.46) -0072 -0063 (-3.58) Off-farm (3.10) .7065 5.69) Days after April 6 (6.70) .1157 0522 (17.29) Days after April 6 34 -0014 -0005*** (-12.96) Gerader"days after (5.15) 060 018 (4.64) Gender"days after sa (1.49) - 0017 --0007 (-6.32) (-3.02) Commune and mutuate dummid Mamace 2.191 Giova 1.124 6078 (6.81) Gishyata 3.53) 1.1417 1408 17.38) Kivum (0.89) 1.5108 9590 19.69) Mabanza (6.01) 3.152 23064 (20.94) Mwendo (1498) .5965 03.35) Rwamatamu 2.398 2.6872 (16.21) Constant (17.42) 4.551 -3.060 (-28.85) (-29.35) N 23.650 21.536 not weighted not weighted not dustered not dustered 0.11 Log likelihood -10,577.96 8,930,64 *** significant at the 1% levd.gificant at the 5% levd, significant the 10% lad. us in pathos 0.20 a. According to model 1 what is the probability that a Rwandan victim with the following characteristic was killed with a firearm: 20 years old, male, On- farm, April 8, Rwamatamu commune? (5 marks)
b. How much does your answer to part a. change if we switch from On-farm to Off-farm? (5 marks) C. Is the change in the probability of being killed by a firearm associated with changing from On-farm to Off-farm always the same, regardless of the other characteristics of the victim? Explain very briefly why or why not. (5 marks) 6. A researcher takes a random sample of wars and studies debates within each country that preceded the decision to fight. She finds that in the majority of cases the decision makers, both civilian and military, were overoptimistic about the chances of victory. That is, they usually thought they would win and even when they allowed that they might not win they still thought they would do better than they actually did. The researcher concludes that wishful thinking (over optimism) causes wars. Explain very briefly why this is not a valid conclusion that can be drawn from this study. Note that the conclusion might actually be true but data collected are not enough to make a convincing case for this conclusion. (10 marks)