Read "New Millennium Thought: Perspectives and Trends" (posted below) and answer the following Questions. You are part

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Read "New Millennium Thought: Perspectives and Trends" (posted
below) and answer the following Questions.

You are part of the top management team of a large multi-national
organization and you are an expert in the diffusion of innovations
perspective. You are expected to be the discussion leader as your
organization considers adopting a strategic plan for the next ten
years. How will you plan to address the issues raised in this case
study? What concepts from chapter 10 and chapter 11 may be
particularly important to integrate into your organization as you
look toward the future?
New Millennium Thought: Perspectives and
Trends
Perspectives on the New Millennium
As
the new millennium continues to unfold and we look toward the
future there are very different trajectories that organizations may
follow. One critical factor appears to be the continued
availability of cheap energy. Large-scale production requires
significant amounts of cheap energy and many scientists believe
that the era of cheap energy, in the form of oil, may soon be
ending. Another important factor is that the basis of the world
economic system is predicated on continued growth of population and
consumption. Many environmental scientists, however, argue that our
finite planet has only so many resources. Some argue that we have
already passed the point of maximum population, while others argue
that point looms on the horizon.
What implications do these observations have for the new
millennium? The end of cheap energy and population growth will
significantly impact the type of world in which we live. As you
will see in the sections to follow the most significant changes
will be smaller and more local forms of organizing. Large
corporations will no longer exist in this environment. People will
be organized in smaller communities that may need to be
self-sufficient in energy and agricultural production. Consumer
products will be produced in cottage businesses.
Are these changes inevitable? If so, when will they occur? These
questions are difficult to answer and complete answers are beyond
the scope of the present case. Some of the sources cited below
provide our readers with a starting place to find out what the
scientific community is saying about these issues.
Traditional Perspectives and the New
Millennium
The traditional perspective of organizing is still being played
out in the global marketplace. Large corporations continue to
compete with one another for market share by producing products in
mass quantities at ever-higher levels of efficiency. Sadly,
efficiency often requires cheap labor where workers are not paid a
living wage whether at Wal-Mart in the U.S. or in a manufacturing
company in China.
The continuation of the traditional model, however, requires the
availability of huge amounts of cheap energy to fuel large-scale
production processes. And the era of cheap energy appears to be
coming to a rapid end. Crude oil prices are at $78.00 per barrel as
of the fall of 2010 (Bloomberg, 2010) and most experts believe that
prices will only continue to increase. Why is crude oil so
expensive? The answer is complex. Part of the problem is the
instability in the Middle East, the major oil-producing region in
the world. So, security costs now have to be factored into oil
production and delivery. The two Gulf Wars have also damaged many
oil fields in Iraq (a major producer) to the point that extraction
costs now exceed the oil yield from those fields. These damages may
have eliminated access to billions of barrels of oil, a significant
loss to the world market (Orlov, 2006).
Most troublesome is the belief held by many scientists that we have
reached or soon will reach the state of peak oil production. Peak
oil is that point at which the production of oil will start a
continual decline. Another way of looking at it is that when we
reach peak oil, only half of the amount of oil that exists on the
planet remains. On the one hand, that’s a lot of oil. On the other
hand, worldwide consumption of oil continues to increase every
year. Furthermore, the oil we have accessed to the present point in
time was the easiest and least inexpensive to extract because it
was closer to the surface. The oil that remains is more expensive
to extract and will only become more so. At a certain point
drilling is no longer viable because it will cost more energy to
remove the oil than the energy that oil produces. So, we will never
be able to gain the use of all the oil that remains because of the
increasing costs of extraction.
Why all this focus on oil? Well, oil is the cheapest and most
efficient energy necessary for large organizations to use to
produce and transport products. Oil is also the cheapest form of
energy to heat homes, produce electricity, and fuel vehicles. If
oil continues to become more expensive, we will need to rely
increasingly on other forms of energy (solar, wind, hydrogen,
nuclear, battery, hydroelectric, etc.). The problems with
these alternatives is none is as efficient as oil as a producer of
energy; they cannot, at present, come close to meeting world energy
needs; and some of them are unreliable. So, without the
availability of cheap, efficient, and reliable energy, the
traditional model of large-scale production will end.
Some argue that we will discover new technologies that will meet
our increasing energy needs, but most scientists are not so
optimistic (Pfeiffer, 2006). The implication of the eventual end to
cheap energy is a collapse of large-scale production and a return
to simpler models of pre-industrial production. Sophisticated
technologies requiring huge amounts of energy will no longer be
available. Simple production by small groups of individuals using
hand tools may become the norm, at least during a transition period
as we redefine how we organize ourselves. The way we live, how we
travel, the education we will need, and the jobs we choose will all
be affected by this profound shift.
One very interesting source that describes the impact of peak oil
is James Howard Kunstler’s (2005) The Long Emergency.
He believes that developed countries such as the U.S. will need to
make new arrangements in a post-industrial age for the manufacture,
distribution, and sale of ordinary goods. Specifically, goods will
probably be made on a “cottage industry” basis rather than on the
factory model because the scale of available energy will be much
lower. The selling of products will also need to done on the local
level so merchandise only needs to be moved short
distances. Although there is no way to predict
when these changes may occur, in the next five to ten years it will
become increasingly clear what road we will be traveling down.
Interpretive Perspectives and the New
Millennium
How society socially constructs reality during the end of the
cheap oil era will have a significant bearing on the world we live
in. Ignoring the problem will not make it go away. Furthermore, the
cheap oil era has had significant environmental impacts, including
global warming. Rising temperatures and ocean levels and more
catastrophic storms will impact where people may live and work.
One way to socially construct reality in this era is taking a
Darwinian “survival of the fittest” perspective. Nations will
compete for access to cheap oil and oil wars are not out of the
question according to the Research and Development Center of the
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Westervelt & Fournier, 2005). Of
course, this competition will ultimately fail because of the
massive amounts of energy required to fight the battles to gain
access to oil. Also, by competing, we lose the advantages of
cooperation. Specifically, to face the complex problems associated
with the end of the fossil fuel era we need to work collaboratively
with one another thereby tapping the best creative minds of the
world. This is a very different construction of reality than the
competitive model that exists at present. The U.S. is showing no
signs of reducing its thirst for oil, neither is India or China.
The U.S. and China, in particular, have also shown a commitment to
competition in seeking access to the cheapest oil available.
Another dominant interpretive frame that may emerge in the next
several years is aggressive pursuit of technological solutions to
the energy problem. This pursuit may also be either competitive or
cooperative. What makes this frame unique is that it is driven by
the belief that science will produce an answer to our energy needs
that will allow us to sustain not only our present energy usage but
also increasing needs in the future. Those who hold onto this
interpretive frame are advocates of continuing the traditional
model of large-scale organizing and production.
If society embraces the possibility of finding a technological
solution to the energy problem to allow continued growth we will
eventually need to challenge the problems associated with growth.
When economists use the term growth they are referring to more
people buying more products and services. Obviously, this means
continued increases in population. If population continues to
expand we will need to harvest more of the world’s resources
including metals, wood and agricultural land.
The final interpretive frame challenges the economic and population
growth model in exchange for a conservation model. Dr. M. King
Hubbert, the first scientist to discuss peak oil, observed:
For most of human history the population doubled every 32,000
years. Now it’s down to 35 years. That is dangerous. No biologic
population can double more than a few times without getting
seriously out of bounds. The world is seriously overpopulated right
now. There can be no possible solutions to the world’s problems
that do not involve stabilization of the world’s population
(Hubbert quoted in Hickerson, 2004, p. 1).
The reason it is critical to stabilize the world’s population is
that humans continue to need more natural resources and energy in
order to survive. Most of the world’s scientists agree that current
population and energy trends are unacceptable and not sustainable.
According to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, “the impact of
excessive, unsustainable energy consumption may undermine the very
culture and the activities it supports” (Westervelt & Fournier,
2005). Given these problems, what options may frame our vision of
the future?
In place of the growth model is a steady state model in which world
population is stabilized (perhaps at reduced levels) and the
economy neither grows nor shrinks. Of course, this framework raises
numerous moral, ethical, and social issues for many people. There
are also economists that challenge the viability of a steady state
economy. Support for this framework does exist, however (Czech
& Daly, 2004; Hickerson, 2004). Two leading advocates of
the steady state model of population and economics are Brian Czech,
a wildlife biologist, and Herman Daly, a former economist at the
World Bank and author of Beyond Growth: The Economics of
Sustainable Development. These two researchers argue that a
steady state model is inevitable given the fundamental conflict
between economic growth and the conservation of life (all species)
on the planet. Humans have gone too far in abusing the environment
and harvesting the earth’s resources. Survival in the future will
depend on positioning our population and economic activity within a
steady state where the earth may replenish its resources for
continued use over time.
The health of a steady state model is also dependent on shifting
away from the focus on competition that dominates capitalistic
industrial society. In place of the competitive model is one of
cooperation and community. Even in developed countries people may
find themselves living in smaller towns organized into neighborhood
associations, neighborhood watch programs, community gardens, and
existing friend and family networks. Agriculture will be
localized with community gardens providing certain food needs.
Remaining food needs of townspeople will require forming
cooperative networks with communities of farmers. In the
cooperative communities envisioned by S.R. Wolf, editor
of Uncommon Thought Journal, building knowledge and
skills among community members will be critical. Community members
will need knowledge so they can become self-sufficient in basic
survival skills related to food production, constructing and
maintaining shelter, maintaining transportation systems (e.g.,
bicycle and small engine repair), and protecting the
environment. Skills such as working with hand tools, using
herbal medicine, making septic systems, paper making, candle
making, glass blowing and blacksmithing may all become highly
desirable skills in small self-sufficient cooperative communities.
In order to build this knowledge base and the requisite skills
needed to promote community health, Community Colleges may become
critically important. Although the changes that are implied in the
shift from a competitive capitalistic model to a cooperative
community model are significant, they are possible. Preparation,
planning, and community building will be necessary. As Wolf (2006)
concludes, “the more we can do now, and the more we can build and
move into an alternative organization and economy, the more likely
we are to successfully meet the future that will come.
Critical Perspectives and the New
Millennium
Discussion Question:
You are part of the top management team of a large
multi-national organization and you are an expert in the diffusion
of innovations perspective. You are expected to be the discussion
leader as your organization considers adopting a strategic plan for
the next ten years. How will you plan to address the issues raised
in this case study? What concepts from chapter 10 and chapter 11
may be particularly important to integrate into your organization
as you look toward the future?