Forecasting Year 4 Workers Compensation Claims This week we will tread up to but not including the simulation of optimiz

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Forecasting Year 4 Workers Compensation Claims This Week We Will Tread Up To But Not Including The Simulation Of Optimiz 1 (175.26 KiB) Viewed 21 times

Forecasting Year 4 Workers Compensation Claims This week we will tread up to but not including the simulation of optimized funding of potential claims experience. The goal of this exercise is to comprehend and practice and reinforce the use of a grid approximation of joint probabilities of hypotheses about claims and observations of actual claims. We build on last week's simulation of waiting times for 20 eateries, each with an intercept and slope that we sample from a distribution of intercepts and slopes. This allows us to forecast waiting times, and here claims, in the presence of high levels of unpredictable outcomes. Instead of 20 eateries, we have 6 forecasting periods, all jointly varying, and thus dependent upon one another. 1. Build three forecasts at low (200), medium ( 400), high (eg, 1000) to maximum claims coverage. Explain the need to vary the analysis by thresholds. 2. Describe the forecast workflow. 3. Run simulations for each. For the week 4 forecast collect EDA and distribution screenshots. 4. Compare and contrast the forecasts. Device at least 3 (no more than 5) criteria of your own making using the EDA statistics and the forecast distributions, prioritize from best to worst the three forecasts. A template workbook will be provided with freshly gathered claims data. Submit your workbook and summary written results in a separate worksheet titled results. Make that worksheet the first worksheet. Be sure you list your collaborators there and in the filename. This week's due date will be next Wednesday night.

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